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Prediction for CME (2022-03-02T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-02T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19327/-1
CME Note: The CME is associated with the M2.0 class from Active Region 12958 (N18E27) peaking at 2022-03-02T17:39Z and the eruption marked by an EUV wave and seen in EUVI A 195 and AIA 193 after 2022-03-02T17:45Z. UPDATE (2022-03-09T17:45Z): There is no conclusive arrival signature for this ICME. The L1 solar wind signature is dominated by the 2022-03-05 high speed stream.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-06T05:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Event ID: 2022-03-03T15:12:25
              253

See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:
:Issued: 2022 Mar 03 1240 UTC
...
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20303
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 03 Mar 2022, 1238UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 03 Mar 2022 until 05 Mar 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Mar 2022  10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 002
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Mar 2022  10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Mar 2022  10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with
an M2 event detected from NOAA Active Region (AR) 2958 (Catania group 46)
at 2 Mar 17:39 UT. Four C-class flares were also detected from an yet
unnamed AR at S21E87. The remaining three NOAA AR that appear on the disk
did not produce flaring activity above the B-class. More C-class events are
expected in the next 24 hours, mostly from NOAA AR 2958 and the AR at
S21E87 that currently turns to Earth's view. There is also a good chance of
an isolated M-class flare from one of those two AR.

Three front-sided Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO
images. The CME of 2 Mar 11:48 and 18:24 UT have a small chance to become
geo-effective and if so they are estimated to arrive on Earth on Mar 6. The
CME of 2 Mar 15:37 is most likely not geo-effective.

Lead Time: 61.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2022-03-03T15:12Z

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